Situation Assessment Heuristics
Set conditions for insight
- Prioritize transparency over objectivity
- Prioritize understanding over blame or fault
- Resist narrative until late in assessment
- Articulate mental frameworks before debating the resulting positions
- Hold strong opinions weakly
- Expect to expend time, resources, and effort
- Don’t assume the first interpretation is best or complete
- Limit assessment by the amount of uncertainty, resources, and time available
- Do less assessment when you have a significant competitive advantage
- Do more assessment when failure would be catastrophic
- Expect to identify and critically evaluate the stories, narratives, and categories used to conceptualize the situation
- Do not fully trust filtered or aggregated information
Gather information
- Observe system behavior in person
- Study existing documentation, theory, and data
- Recruit and confer with experts
- Study similar and competing systems
- Define assumptions explicitly
- Identify what is missing, uncertain, or unknown
- Review responses to shocks or rapid changes
- Evaluate the accuracy and precision of data
- Free the data; identify distortion, delay, or sequestering
- Identify where power, accountability, benefits, and risks lie
- Identify reinforcing and balancing loops
- Make pictures, flow charts, and maps
- Be active in adjacent areas and projects
Encourage diversity of perspectives
- Engage a broad range of stakeholders
- Create a safe environment with standards for behavior
- Resist using power to shortcut deliberation
- Make deliberate, yet tentative boundary decisions
- Use models to encourage reflection and debate
- Share information freely and make it easy to visualize
- Seek out and maintain independent sources of information
- Engage individuals with local knowledge
- Engage outsiders with no stake in the system
- Solicit the opinions of disadvantaged or less assertive stakeholders
- Think through the problem forward and backward
- Discuss what would need to be true to support assumptions
- Prioritize utility of information over searching for objective truth
- Prioritize input from those who do the work
Assess on multiple levels
- Cycle between deep dives and big picture analysis
- Look for patterns of behavior over time
- Look for events, results, and transactions
- Look for organizing rules, priorities, and structures
- Perform both synthesis and analysis
Define purposes and values
- Define purposes and values before defining problems
- Use purposes and values to guide problem definitions
- Use purposes and values to guide boundary definitions
- State problems in solution independent terms
- Try stating the problem in both general and specific terms
- Move to a larger purpose to widen the range of solutions
- Move to a more specific purpose to narrow the range of solutions
- Make boundary decisions to construct a solvable problem
- Create narratives, categories, and stories to help conceptualize the situation
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